There is no question what the toughest in-season tournament is every year. It’s this one.
Just like there is no question what the toughest preview for this tournament is every year. It’s this one.
Let’s get to it.
This is basically all freshmen. I don’t know who was in line for 4 Ironman titles prior to Covid, but there are couple sophomores who won last year back again, and this entire group is eligible for that should they come out crowned the champion.
The favorite has to be Bachmann. He’s one of the top 2, 3 freshmen in the country and has done nothing coming into the season to give us reason to think otherwise.
Villasenor was supposed to be a big challenger at Super 32 but suffered an injury and forfeited out. Assuming he’s rested, recovered, and ready I think he poses a nice challenge here.
Regan battled Bachmann in the Super 32 semis to 1-0. They just wrestled again in last week’s headlining dual. Bachmann came out 7-3 that time. So, we’d give the edge to Bachmann again but these kids are super familiar with each other so you never know.
Noble had an impressive Spring and Summer heading into his first HS season. I think right now you make him a clear candidate to reach the podium but not quite the title contender of the top 3.
Cassioppi, like Noble, has been everywhere it seems. He’s picked up big wins – Dodd at Super 32 for example – and taken some tough losses. No one is more battle-tested. We’ll see if that serves him well through the frontside or even to spur a top 3 consolation run.
Dodd is joined his teammate, Grey Burnett (113), to make up one of the most formidable lower weight duos in the country. When Burnett was at 106, he was top 5. Dodd comes in just outside our top 10 but should do substantially better than last year’s 1-2 showing.
This might be some folks’ first time catching Anello. He enters this season as a super heralded youth star. He should be a fixture in the Blair lineup for years. I would be surprised and impressed if he knocked off one of the top 3. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he beat anyone else.
Darkhorse(s): I think we always see Ohio guys overperform. That might be someone like Lincoln Rohr of Massillon Perry.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Caleb Noble vs Mason Rohr
Potential Quarterfinals:
Bachmann vs Karvoski
Noble vs Cassioppi
Villasenor vs Anello
Regan vs Dodd
Semifinals:
Bachmann vs Cassioppi
Villasenor vs Regan
Finals:
Bachmann vs Villasenor
Champion:
Joe Bachmann (Faith Christian, PA)
We didn’t have to wait long to find our first returning champion. Last year, Munaretto was a freshman at 106 and left the weekend with the gold.
His toughest battle proved to be the semifinals match up with Smith. Ayden is a multi-time PIAA state champ and I’m sure would love that rematch, since it’s most likely to occur in the finals. Smith would ultimately take 3rd last year.
As mentioned with Dodd at 106, Burnett is the freshman phenom of this bunch and could definitely shake things up (as much as you’d say a 3 seed shakes things up). He took a slight upset loss at Super 32 to Rocco Hayes and while Hayes isn’t here for any possible revenge, what better way to get back to national prominence than a deep Ironman run? I have him coming in ranked 12th at 113 but he’s certainly capable of making me look dumb there.
Hunter Taylor gets the 4 seed and you won’t find him ranked by anyone nationally but me. So who is right? We shall see. He’s the elder statesman of the group, a senior committed to Oregon State. That could prove valuable in tough spots. Last year he finished 8th with 2 losses to Sebastian DeGennaro and a respectable loss at the hands of Marcus Blaze.
There’s a couple Ohio kids that seem to fluctuate in other rankings, Timar is one of them. He finished 4th last year, ultimately losing to Smith in the consolation finals. He would go on to capture an Ohio D1 state title, that included a finals over Rylan Seacrist (seeded 9 here).
Perhaps a bit of discrepancy between the 6 seeded Motyka and where I have him ranked among the group. As mentioned with Burnett, this could be the sort of match up Burnett ultimately wins. I just have to give a little credit to Motyka at this weight.
Garcia has been a fast riser after a very impressive Super 32 performance. Last year at Ironman, Garcia took a big loss to Javaan Yarbrough and then to Motyka. He avenged Motyka as part of that Super 32 run. Perhaps they get a rubber match of sorts this weekend.
Aydan Thomas has had some really high moments and some sort of head scratching losses over the last year. I believe at his best, he could probably take out anyone here but Munaretto. But it’s tough to predict that for him.
Darkhorse(s): Kole Davidheiser is the highest ranked unseeded. Depending where he lines up, he could knock off someone early. There was a time Bruno Cassioppi was ranked higher than Rocco. Now he’s sort of fallen out of favor but there’s no reason he couldn’t make a nice run.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Aydan Thomas vs Rylan Seacrist
Potential Quarterfinals:
Munaretto vs Thomas
Taylor vs Timar
Smith vs Garcia
Burnett vs Motyka
Semifinals:
Munaretto vs Taylor
Smith vs Motyka
Finals:
Munaretto vs Smith
Champion:
Dom Munaretto (St Charles East)
DeLuca came into last year’s tournament carrying a 6 seed. He’d go on to finish 4th, outperforming expectations, if only slightly. He’s only continued to get even better. If you’re looking for storylines, he just committed to Iowa and the momentum of that could propel a title run. Last year, he ousted Blaze in an overtime barnburner and lost to eventual champ Lilledahl 3-2. With most of last year’s 120 wrestlers up at 126, it’s his weight to lose, but it’s not without some obstacles.
First up to bat to send DeLuca home without the title is Stillwater senior Beric Jordan. I believe he’s an Ohio native who made the move to Oklahoma prior to last year. He came back to the Buckeye state and finished as the runner-up to Bo Bassett at 113. He’s a tough out for anyone.
After Jordan, we get Nate Desmond. A state champion from the PIAA, he’s now competing for the juggernaut Wyoming Seminary where he figures to see DeLuca again. To get to 2023 round 1, he’ll have to get past Jordan in the semis.
LLM is sort of forgotten. I think he’s been hurt, but as of right now, no one else has him ranked. Yikes. I think he’s about a lock to medal here (barring injury).
Ethan Rivera slots right in as the 5 seed and yet another from the prep ranks. He was the prep national runner-up to LLM. Also has a 1-1 match split with Dillard in recent history. That’s a great quarterfinals match up there.
Mack Mauger travels all the way from Idaho and can’t ever seem to escape PA kids. Last year it was two losses to Mutarelli and then Desmond and he finished 6th. This year, he’s surrounded by PA kids again. Desmond. LLM. Dillard and Gill. Mauger just took a close loss to Gill, maybe he gets a rematch.
Desmond and Dillard spent last season going back to back state champs for BECAHI. Now, they’ll possibly battle against each other. They appear to be on opposite sides of the bracket so likely in the consolations, they’d prefer the finals.
Gill was definitely a forgotten man around the country. He carries an average 14 ranking by others and a 7 by me. He has recent wins over Landon Sidun and Mack Mauger. We’ll see how he navigates this one. Last season, it was a 4th place finish with a loss to Desmond in the 3rd place match.
Darkhorse(s): I feel like I’m always hoping for Deven Casey (IC Catholic, IL) to make that next leap nationally. Maybe it happens here.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Keanu Dillard vs Devon Miller
Potential Quarterfinals:
DeLuca vs Gill
LLM vs Rivera
Jordan vs Dillard
Desmond vs Mauger
Semifinals:
DeLuca vs LLM
Jordan vs Desmond
Finals:
DeLuca vs Jordan
Champion:
Leo DeLuca (Blair, NJ)
If there are two opponents more familiar with each other than Luke Lilledahl and Jax Forrest, I’d love to know who. I mean obviously those who train together during club season would but for just sheer opposition, competitive rivalry, it doesn’t get a lot better than Forrest and Lilledahl.
Hoping to get in the way of this finals reunion will be JJ McComas, an Oklahoma state runner-up who didn’t place last year. As you can tell by his top 5 ranking, he’s had quite the offseason. Recently, he was in the Super 32 finals against Jax.
Seth Mendoza has been up at 126 and I would guess is settling into the higher weight well now. He’s one of the best wrestlers in the state of Illinois and came away with a 7th place finish last year.
Whether it’s Jayden or Jordyn, the Raney’s are tough for anyone. It was actually Jordyn who took on Jax in one of the more memorable Who’s #1 matches ever. Now, it’s Jayden looking to crash this party. He finished 8th at 113 a year ago.
Every time you look at a big national event you can be sure Sebastian DeGennaro will be there. That means he’ll pick up some nice wins, but he also takes some tough losses. A really great performance this weekend might include a win over McComas in the quarters.
Gage Walker gets forgotten but he actually beat McComas in the Oklahoma state finals and might feel like he’s being disrespected at this point. He’ll have a great chance to turn those tables.
Porter Matecki is a polarizing wrestler among the national outlets. Missouri Wrestling has him as the state’s #1 wrestler pound for pound. Flo doesn’t even have him ranked. Something has to give.
Darkhorse(s): I think Geronimo Rivera (Layton, UT) shows up tough and proves to be a really tough out.
Potential Quarterfinals:
Lilledahl vs Matecki
Mendoza vs Raney
Forrest vs Walker
McComas vs DeGennaro
Semifinals:
Lilledahl vs Mendoza
Forrest vs McComas
Finals:
Lilledahl vs Forrest
Champion:
Luke Lilledahl (Wyoming Seminary, PA)
Returning Ironman champ Davino is back for the first big event since he was beat, somewhat surprisingly, at Super 32. We were hoping to get a Davino vs Bassett finals there but Sergio Vega from Sunnyside AZ had other plans. We thought we could get that showdown here, but now Bassett is up at 138. However, it’s still a rather salty field for Davino to battle through and repeat as champion.
With Bassett out, Blaze is in. He’s been slotted at 126 leading up to Ironman but enters at 132. He made pretty big news beating Jax Forrest at the collegiate Clarion Open. But he didn’t stop there, picking up a win over last year’s NCAA runner-up Matt Ramos.
Blaze is joined by fellow Buckeye state champ, Dillon Campbell. The Legacy Christian senior finished 3rd a year ago and looks to build on that in his last Ironman appearance of his career.
Mason Gibson had been out for a minute. Came back in time for the PA Power Surge and won that. Now he’s settling into 132 and quite possibly could win this whole thing. The last time he faced Davino, it was a 3-1 OT thriller in the Super 32 finals a year ago.
The bigger Raney has had even slightly more national success than his brother. He upset Jax at the 2022 Super 32 with a nasty cradle. He then followed it up in the rematch with Jax to an 18-15 OT barnburner. He can score on anyone. Always dangerous.
You can’t really talk about Botello without talking about Lopes. They’re like joined at the hip. They take turns beating each other but Botello tends to fare a little better against the other top competition. As the 6 and 8 seeds, they can’t see each other for awhile but I’m sure they aren’t upset about that.
Sandwiched between the Matts is Nik O’Neill. The Malvern Prep senior makes for 3 prep wrestlers among the top 8 seeds. O’Neill is probably a bit lower seeded than he should be. He has a win over Campbell the last time they met and was prep national runner-up to Marc-Anthony McGowan.
Darkhorse(s): Draegen Orine is back, no longer at Sem, wrestling at his home school, Seckman, where his brother lit the world on fire. To say he’s been off the radar is a massive understatement and he could be dangerous to anyone ahead of him. Could be a Brandon Cannon like run all over again.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Matty Lopes vs Draegen Orine
Potential Quarterfinals:
Davino vs Lopes
Gibson vs Raney
Blaze vs O’Neill
Campbell vs Botello
Semifinals:
Davino vs Gibson
Blaze vs Campbell
Finals:
Blaze vs Davino
Champion:
Marcus Blaze (Perrysburg, OH)
Bo Bassett has quickly become the new household name in HS wrestling. Definitely star whose starpower seems to be constantly rising. He won the Ironman title at 113 last year and he’s making the 4 weight jump here. The most recent time we saw him at 138 was at Who’s #1 against Daniel Zepeda. That might have been too much too quick but he’s been terrorizing 132 ever since and I’m guessing perfectly ready to bring his signature style to 138 here.
Ayoub was the Ohio D1 champ at 138 last year. He finished 4th in this bracket last year with 2 losses to Kollin Rath. He comes in as the 4th highest ranked on our board and a definitely favorite to repeat last year’s result, if not improve upon it.
Guerra was a little bit underrated in my opinion heading into Super 32. He’s underrated no more. He’d be my pick to meet Bassett in the finals.
Billy Dekraker is still holding things down for Blair while his brother is headed to Faith Christian next season. He’s a really tough competitor who should reach Bassett in the semis. For pretty much everyone here, their hopes are “how long until Bo?”
Jackson Tucker has been climbing, especially since Super 32. I wouldn’t say he’s a title contender in a field with Bo, but he could push everyone else.
A year ago, Matt Hart was competing for Western Reserve Academy. A prep school from Ohio. He’s moved to Baylor in Tennessee and looks to reach the podium that escaped him last year.
Hunter Hollingsworth was one of the guys who beat Hart here last season. But it was close, 5-2. I think Hollingsworth is a solid bet to reach the semifinals, where it could be Hart again but more likely Guerra.
Last year, Lake Highland had a stud in Eligh Rivera at this weight. Kacena is stepping in where Rivera’s departure left a hole. I think the bracket sets up for him to reach the quarterfinals.
Darkhorse(s): Mason Wagner (FCA) and Joseph Joyce (Ponaganset) are both kids that could find themselves among the rankings by season’s end. In the meantime, they look to stir up some trouble for the favorites this weekend.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Hunter Hollingsworth vs Brady Ison
Potential Quarterfinals:
Bassett vs Kacena
Dekraker vs Tucker
Ayoub vs Hollingsworth
Guerra vs Hart
Semifinals:
Bassett vs Dekraker
Hollingsworth vs Guerra
Finals:
Bassett vs Guerra
Champion:
Bo Bassett (Bishop McCort, PA)
144 at Super 32 was a wild ride. But a lot of that might have been the absence of Manville at the top. Left an opening for the freshman Melvin Miller to crash the party. And that’s what happened. Manville is here and I expect him to hold serve as the best in the field.
Brogan Tucker picked up some nice wins at Super 32 and comes in right around the top 10 in the country. He did lose to Miller in that same Super 32 bracket, but I guess he’s eyeing that semifinals should seeds hold.
Speaking of Miller, he’s definitely solidified himself among the nation’s best at 144. He did, however, suffer a loss to Consiglio at PA Power’s The Surge. Hence the rankings we have here. However, I could definitely see Miller rebounding and they’re set up to wrestle in the quarterfinals.
Schneider is another Oklahoma state champion in this field. There’s lots of those actually. He’ll be at the Air Force Academy after HS and perhaps a top 5 finish is in the cards for him this weekend.
Linsman has been busy this off season. As such, he’s taken quite a few losses. Although they’re all to guys ahead of him. He’s one of the best from the Show Me State. He’ll have a chance to show us that he can start turning some close losses into wins.
As mentioned, Consiglio rocketed up after the win over Miller. This is definitely a case of ranking vs seed. We’ll see how it plays out.
Chase Van Hoven is kind of in a similar spot as Linsman. Competitive against the top guys, but hasn’t quite turned it into wins. He has a chance now.
Kade Brown strikes me as another Buckeye State wrestler who might benefit from the home crowd. Not that this is in his high school, but just the proximity and the energy where parents and others might cheer for the Ohio kid. Maybe it pushes him up the podium.
Darkhorse(s): Jaydon Robinson (Winter Springs, FL). Transferring from Illinois down to Florida, Robinson has picked up some big wins in his day, Cam Catrabone for one, Mac Church. But he hasn’t enjoyed that same level of success of late (thinking of Elite 8 Duals). If he’s focused and on his game, he could disrupt this whole thing.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Linsman vs Robinson
Potential Quarterfinals:
Manville vs Brown
Schneider vs Linsman
Tucker vs Van Hoven
Miller vs Consiglio
Semifinals:
Manville vs Linsman
Tucker vs Consiglio
Finals:
Manville vs Consiglio
Champion:
Pierson Manville (State College, PA)
Sort of like Forrest and Lilledahl, where you see Manville you often see Rath. To the point that I’m sure they’re kind of glad to have some potential different opponents in the finals. Although, if Rath takes care of business as the top seed it’s quite possible he runs into yet another PA kid. Most recently, Rath beat Routledge in the Super 32 finals.
Like Rath, Bouzakis was a PIAA state champion last season. That was for Notre Dame Green Pond. Now, he’s with Sem competing at the prep level. Thinking back to early last year, it took Vince a few tournaments to get his bearings – trying out different weights, producing a wide range of results. He’s absolutely capable of winning this bracket. He’s got to be anxious to get back at it after the upset to Denny at Super 32.
Jax Joy has been steady in the top 3 at 144 and now moves up to 150 where I think he actually has more of a chance at a title. He did battle with Manville on day 2 at Elite 8, but it was Manville proving just a little too much that day. Up here, it’s a pair PA kids standing in his way. We’ve seen Bouzakis susceptible to the loss, Joy could do it to him.
Routledge had himself a Super 32 run all the way to the finals. Though he would ultimately fall to Rath. He’s slated to get Rath in the semis here. It’s not out of the question that he flips that result.
Torres was the national prep champion last year in the same bracket as Will Henckel. But recently he does have losses to Rath and Bouzakis. He’ll have to get through Routledge for the shot at Rath. Then a possible revenge rematch with Vince in the finals.
Wilson has hovered around the top 20-25 for awhile now. As the 6 seed he’ll be expected to reach the podium for the 2nd straight year (he finished 6th last season).
Ryan Bennett might be one of the biggest discrepancies between the seed and the national rank. This sets up quite the quarterfinals with Bouzakis.
As mentioned, Denny held his own in North Carolina this past October, pulling off one of the biggest upsets of that weekend over Bouzakis. Maybe they’ll get to run it back.
Darkhorse(s): Chase Hontz (FCA, PA). Honestly, when it comes to darkhorses, you can never go wrong with PA kids.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Ty Wilson vs Mitch Younger
Potential Quarterfinals:
Rath vs Denny
Routledge vs Torres
Joy vs Wilson
Bouzakis vs Bennett
Semifinals:
Rath vs Routledge
Joy vs Bennett
Finals:
Rath vs Joy
Champion:
Jax Joy (Wadsworth, OH)
The big news when the pre-seeds dropped was that Joe Sealey and LaDarion Lockett would be up at 165. We were expecting to see the two world champs go at it at Super 32 but Sealey ended up not entering. Then we thought it could happen here. And it still very well might, just at a weight above.
As for 157, the vacuum left by those top two will be filled by a bunch of guys with a chance to announce their presence nationally. By the rankings and seed, Blair’s Ognissanti is the favorite to win this one. He finished 3rd last year at prep nationals and 5th here at Ironman.
Similar to Bouzakis, Evanitsky is a PIAA state champion from Wyoming Area who now competes for Wyoming Seminary. He’ll be a threat all year to win every competition they enter and this one is no different. If it is an Ognissanti Evanitsky finals, that could be the prep finals as well.
Sturgill seems to get slotted just outside other folks top 20. Perhaps if they ranked to 25 he’d be there as well. In any event, he’s a Tennessee state champ but did not place here a year ago. Now, the expectations are different. By seed he should finish well within the top 8. By my ranking, he’s still 8th. He has recent wins over Kael Voinovich and Layton Scheider.
I can’t for the life of me understand why Sommer isn’t ranked in a consensus fashion. I believe Billy Buckheit for Sports Illustrated has him ranked but no one else does. I always keep my eye on these sorts of things just to see if I’m onto something or just on something, I think it’s legal now in Ohio by the way. So anyway, Sommer is an Oklahoma state champion. I’m just baffled, he’s not even among like 15 honorable mentions on Flo. I’m looking at this field and think he could win it.
Harney is another one that I’m a little higher on. I have him 24th, no one else has him anywhere. And once again not even among the 15 HM’s on Flo. I don’t know, I value things like a D1 Ohio state title. Not to where I would put him top 10, but he could even prove me wrong. This is probably the most wide open weight.
Aaron Stewart is definitely live for a top 5 finish. In fact, there’s a real chance there’s an all Illinois semifinals to get to most likely Ognissanti. He’ll be favored over Sturgill in the quarters. Then it’s the Enright Evanitsky winner next. Stewart finished 3rd last year in the same bracket that Enright finished 2nd.
Speaking of Enright, he’s one of the best from Illinois at any weight. I have him top 15 while the two biggest outlets have him nowhere to be found. Again, it’s not to say I’m right and they’re wrong. I’m just pointing out we all see things very differently. I see a real national player. And at this weight, this weekend, I see a viable championship contender.
Woodcock I believe is out of the competition.
Darkhorse(s): I’m going with Joe Jeter (Edmond North, OK) here. He finished 3rd in the state down at 138 but his namesake Derek is one of the most clutch athletes of all time. Maybe he taps into that in a chaotic bracket.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Aaron Stewart vs Asher Cunningham
Potential Quarterfinals:
Orgnissanti vs Guerrero
Sommer vs Harney
Evanitsky vs Enright
Sturgill vs Stewart
Semifinals:
Ognissanti vs Sommer
Enright vs Stewart
Finals:
Ognissanti vs Enright
Champion:
Eddie Enright (Mt Carmel, IL)
This weight is pretty bananas. We got two world champions. Neither one is the favorite to win it. We got the previously #1 ranked in the country at 165, and he’s no longer top 3. We have a kid as the 5 seed who was the 1 seed at Super 32 and upset Sealey in the semifinals of this very tournament last year.
So Ferrari is quite simply a candidate for top pound for pound at any weight and any graduating class. His last match against Sealey was at Who’s #1 over a year ago. So while that was a dominating performance, perhaps the gap has closed. Ferrari also won this one last year and is a solid favorite to do so again, even in this stacked field.
Sealey is phenomenal in his own right and I think a strong candidate to replicate some of that elite NCAA success at PSU once he gets there. However, he is occasionally vulnerable to the surprise loss and could be here. Though it doesn’t look like he’ll be considerably tested until Lockett in the semis.
Lockett is an immense talent in his own right. He entered last year’s tournament as the 1 seed, in the same weight as PJ Duke. Though he would ultimately take 3rd. It was an OT loss to Henckel in the semifinals that took him out of championship contention. Now, Henckel is in the same weight again. Could they get a rematch?
As mentioned, Henckel did win that match against Lockett and then ultimately fell to Duke in the finals. He would then finish 3rd at prep nationals. He’s only a junior, so still improving. Definitely comes in with a little less fanfare than the other 3 but he could do something along the lines of what Ty Eise did against Ferrari at Who’s #1. Keep it close, who knows.
Birden will be the Ohio fan favorite of this group. Perhaps he knocks off Henckel in the quarters and then Ferrari in the semis… that would be crazy. But that’s why they wrestle and that’s why we watch.
Giddens, Rinehart, and Sherlock are all very solid 6-8 seeds. Giddens is an Oklahoma state champion, Rinehart finished 6th last year splitting two matches with Ognissanti, and Sherlock finished 6th at preps and did not place here.
Darkhorse(s): I think Dante Hutchings (Pomona, CO) might fit the bill here. Unranked, seeded 13th.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Emmitt Sherlock vs Max Norman
Potential Quarterfinals:
Ferrari vs Sherlock
Henckel vs Birden
Sealey vs Rinehart
Lockett vs Giddens
Semifinals:
Ferrari vs Henckel
Sealey vs Lockett
Finals:
Ferrari vs Sealey
Champion:
Angelo Ferrari (Melissa, TX)
With Ferrari down at 165, this becomes Eise’s chance to stamp his place at 175. He’s been competitive everywhere I’ve seen him. Most recently was that match up with Ferrari at WNO. And last year he finished 4th here with a win over Federici.
Looking at the rankings, there’s still 6 of the top 10 even with Ferrari out. This is still a very interesting and highly competitive weight. The two seed is Nate Blanchette and frankly this will be the first time I’ve seen him in person, I’m looking forward to that. You don’t often see wrestlers from Mass this highly regarded.
Adam Waters is that dude. He I have seen. Like when he pinned a top 15 opponent in the PIAA state finals. As a freshman. And he just beat Federici in the dual between those schools.
Gage Wright is another in a pretty consistent line of Parkersburg South studs who actually failed to place last year as the two seed. I have to imagine he’s anxious for this – let’s call it a redemption tour through Cuyahoga Falls, OH.
Federici is a very worthy opponent at the 5 seed. As mentioned, he just took a very close loss to Waters. He could flip that result. They’re on opposite sides so it will be awhile should they run into each other again. He finished 5 among national preps but would be considered the favorite to win it this year.
Colin Kelly was the Illinois 3A runner up in what was definitely considered the main event of that tournament. Now, he’s the favorite to win it all. He’s set up for a stellar quarterfinals against Waters. I’m anxious to see this one. He wasn’t in attendance last year so this is his last shot at the title. Has very recent win over Westpfahl.
Westpfahl is a very solid national contender type. He’s been just about everywhere. Taken his share of losses, but all to elite guys. He’s also picked up a nice collection of wins. He’s definitely a candidate to outplace his seed.
Carson Thomas is the Ohio representative here. He’s a state runner up and has some of the same wins that Westphal got. I believe at Elite 8 mostly. The Indiana commit is only a junior so we really want to see some steady improvement and consistent competitive matches.
Darkhorse(s): For me, it’s not even a real darkhorse, Gunner Cramblett (Graham, OH). Now I won’t go so far as to say I agree with SI ranking him 7th. I will say that he should be somewhere in the top 20 though. And I think he’ll show that this weekend.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Carson Thomas vs Talon McCollom
Potential Quarterfinals:
Eise vs Thomas
Wright vs Federici
Blanchette vs Westpfahl
Waters vs Kelly
Semifinals:
Eise vs Wright
Blanchette vs Waters
Finals:
Eise vs Waters
Champion:
Adam Waters (Faith Christian, PA)
The first thing we notice is that this is definitely the most shallow at the top weight of the tournament. Even among the schools entered, Frazier’s Rune Lawrence was going to be the only wrestler in the top 5 in attendance. He’s here but up at 215. That leaves a huge hole for someone to step into.
For the talent that is here, it’s very top heavy, concentrated in the top 4, but they are all super close to each other. This could mean we get a bunch of dominating runs to the semifinals or someone, somewhere blows this whole thing up.
It’s hard to say anyone is a clearcut favorite, but I think you’d have to give a slight edge to Ziola. Then Miller and Taylor. Ziola has a recent head to head over Henry, as well as Cole Han-Lindemeyer, and some other tough battles as he doesn’t shy away from anything.
Someone not among this list is Wyoming Seminary’s Jake Dailey. I guess he doesn’t have the results at this weight to warrant seeding but he’s definitely better than the 16th best in this weight. Without knowing where he’ll be slotted in, it’s hard to predict what happens.
Taylor and Dailey just battled it out in a dual between the schools. Taylor edged him in that one.
Darkhorse(s): By the fact that he’s unseeded, I’m going with Jake Dailey (Wyoming Seminary, PA)
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Gunner Henry vs Nico Ronchetti
Potential Quarterfinals:
Taylor vs Gates
Henry vs Marchesseault
Ziola vs Wehmeyer
Miller vs Kucharszk
Semifinals:
Taylor vs Henry
Ziola vs Miller
Finals:
Taylor vs Ziola
Champion:
Cade Ziola (Skutt Catholic, NE)
All of a sudden the battle for this belt just got a bit more interesting. With the addition of Rune Lawrence up here at 215, the foregone conclusion of a) a Correa Shulaw finals and b) a Correa championship has been completely erased.
Correa has definitely done enough to warrant a top 3 ranking nationally, and I think he just happens to be in the same weight as the best wrestler in the country, Gilroy’s Cody Merrill, or he’d be a candidate for #1. With Run Lawrence bumping up here, we’re reminded that Correa did beat him the last time they wrestled, but that was over a year ago at Super 32.
Shulaw was last year’s champion. He had one of the more dominant runs, winning every match by a major or more. He’s definitely a formidable opponent.
What I’ve seen out of Lawrence over the past calendar year, I give him a slight edge over Shulaw in that heavily anticipated semifinal, and I might even go so far as to say he walks away the champion.
Mocco is a tough out. He’s coming off a Super 32 runner up performance. Of course being in October, these upperweights tend to suffer a bit with so many still in football. We’ll see how things shake out for him this weekend.
Will Clark I’m thinking I may be completely underrating. I’m not opposed to making huge moves if a result proves me wrong and I think Clark could definitely do that.
Oscar Williams has done well for himself since last year’s Ironman. He was the 7 seed and didn’t place. Even took a loss to Clark. We’ll see if he’s focused and able to rectify that situation.
I think Rylan Kuhn is live to make some noise here as well
Darkhorse(s): I’m going with Cayaen Smith (Pleasant Grove, UT). I love his last name for one thing. And his name is like cayenne pepper and who doesn’t like a little spice.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Rylan Kuhn vs Gunner Wilson
Potential Quarterfinals:
Correa vs McConnell
Mocco vs Clark
Shulaw vs Kuhn
Lawrence vs Williams
Semifinals:
Correa vs Mocco
Shulaw vs Lawrence
Finals:
Correa vs Lawrence
Champion:
Jude Correa (Wyoming Seminary, PA)
I was really hoping we’d see Joliet Catholic’s beast of a heavyweight Dillan Johnson. I kind of get it. He’s been playing football, probably isn’t in full wrestling shape yet. Last week he had a huge showdown against Cole Mirasola. A match he was winning most of the way but then gave up a late takedown and it went against him.
His win over Carter Neves last season was actually what propelled him to #1 at heavyweight, and he would stay in that position until the freestyle season where he doesn’t compete as much and Koy Hopke won a world gold.
In any case, we won’t get this top 5 rematch but instead should see Neves as a solid favorite. Even as he’s #4 to Fockler’s #6 in our rankings, I think there’s a decent gap between them. But that’s why the wrestle and don’t just listen to me. You actually shouldn’t ever listen to me.
This is actually a really solid group at heavyweight. Again, this is one of the weights consistently better than Super 32 – due to the timing on the calendar.
Even though on paper I do favor Neves fairly heavily, this is almost always the weight the biggest upsets. And the quality of this field means it could happen again.
I personally like what I see out of Ricky Thomas. Maybe he gets by Lanosga and then surprises Neves.
Darkhorse(s): Maybe Paul Clark (Crown Point, IN). Perhaps his brother has success and then he rides that wave for himself.
Most Interesting Round Of 16:
Shilo Jones vs Mark Effendian
Potential Quarterfinals:
Neves vs Jones
Lanosga vs Thomas
Fockler vs Pavlechko
Stillwell vs Clark
Semifinals:
Neves vs Thomas
Fockler vs Stillwell
Finals:
Neves vs Fockler
Champion:
Carter Neves (Blair, NJ)
Based in Western PA. Right in the heart of WPIAL country, Todd brings an insider’s view from the country’s epicenter of wrestling. He’s excited to build on the TKDWN tradition of starting with the story first. The athletes, the coaches, their families and supporters, there is no shortage of stories to tell. And Todd will bring his unique perspective to help us continue to deliver top notch content for the world’s greatest sport!
