It seems every year, the annual Blair vs Sem dual is a top 2, top 3, top 5, some level of highly elite match up. Of course naysayers will say, yeah but how many are home grown, they recruit. Whatever, if you like wrestling, especially at the high school level, but any level really, then how could you not like this one every year? What more do you want? As someone who has no rooting interest in any particular team – just kidding Selma people, just playing Joliet Catholic fam, Delbarton, even the Blair faithful have shown me an outsized level of support and for that I am grateful. And so in return, I shall predict an 84-0 Blair win because I’m only human and bias is a thing. Stupidity is also a thing. A thing I have plenty of at times, but this is not one of those times so I will not be predicting a Blair shutout win. In fact, setting everything aside, Wyoming Seminary should be considered heavy favorites in every dual they could possibly wrestle this season, this one included.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a path to a Blair win, and it definitely doesn’t mean that there won’t be some classic individual performances along the way. And in this dual, a lot of unpredictable things take place. I remember looking so forward to a Beau Bartlett Shayne Van Ness battle. Got home, fired up the live stream, and there went Bartlett winning by fall in like 22 seconds. Maybe something like that happens.

Last year, at Blair (which you can read about here https://thetakedown.media/sem-at-blair-dual-recap/) Wyoming Seminary entered as a slight favorite and the home Buccaneers came away with the win. And they did it by flipping 2 previous head to head results, and then a huge win by pin by Logan Rozynski which absolutely changed the course of the evening for good.

So what will it take this go round, in their rival’s home gym? A little bit of the same and even more. This Wyoming Seminary team is something a little different. Even when compared to the most recent powerhouse Blair teams, this Blue Knight line up finished in the top 5 all time in Ironman points, Ironman finalists, and more. But the quality of this Blair squad might be sliding under the radar somewhat.

Every single weight in this dual features at least one ranked wrestler. Five matches will pit two against each other. Owing to very similar schedules, we do get some early season results between some of them and that gives a little picture of what to expect.

At 106 Regan currently holds the 1-0 advantage over Anello. But we’ve seen with Cam Sontz someone get revenge against Regan this season. Anello could do the same. At the same time, Anello is a freshman stepping into the enemy’s lair so to speak and I have to side with the Blue Knight. That first match up was 4-3 in the Ironman semifinals so should be close either way.

113 is another solid one – Motyka won Ironman. Batista didn’t place there but he’s been steadily climbing since. Maybe he’s been working toward this moment. There’s no recent history between these two but there is a relatively recent match up for Batista with Nikos Fillipos. He’s behind Motyka on the B team. That’s no knock on him or Batista, he’s also really good. But it is simply to say the reasonable expectation is a Motyka controlled win. If this were at Blair I might give more thought to the upset.

On paper, 120 should be the best individual match up of the evening. The issue with paper is that that’s not where wrestling happens. That’s ok because even on the mat, I have this as the best match of the dual. Once Anthony Knox moved up to 126, and DeLuca took over the top spot at this weight, there have been fewer more dominant #1’s in the country. He’s the Buccaneers top dog and will have to come through here for any chance of the team upset. Could Desmond win this one? His first Blair Sem rodeo? In his new home? Sure could. And whatever happens here, we might be in for a huge Big 10 rivalry with DeLuca heading to Iowa and Desmond going to PSU. For now, I give the edge to Leo but it’ll be close.

126 is one of the weights where the Blue Knights dominate and should separate on the scoreboard.

There might not be two kids anywhere in the country who have wrestled each other more than Botello and Lopes. However, ironically, they haven’t met yet this season. Last year, it was Botello winning in the early season and Lopes getting revenge helping secure that Buccaneers dual victory. This year, they’ll need him to repeat that performance just to stay within striking distance. They do have a common opponent this year, Malvern’s Nik O’Neill. Lopes is 1-1 against him while Botello is 0-2. In fact, that win for Lopes is exactly why he comes in with the slightly higher ranking. Give him the edge coming in but allowing for the possibility of a Botello win at home.

After Lopes, Blair actually will be favored in 3 of the next 4. If they can run up bonus through these weights and then keep Bouzakis from doing the same at 150, things get a little more interesting. The one thing I’ll note here is that based on the season, Ognissanti is a solid favorite over Evanitsky. But we just saw someone – Ryan Bennett – who came into the season with a huge ranking and expectation and kind of fell short early, and win a big tournament over a top 10 opponent. This would be storybook for Evanitsky to get his best win of the season in his debut in this rivalry. He’s a PIAA state champion so of course he’s dangerous.

After 157, the reality may begin to set in. Wyoming Seminary is unrelenting. Even as you get to the upperweights, they keep running out Ironman finalists, Powerade champions, etc. And it’s at these weights where the result is often pins, and 6 to the victor. 

Based on history, the one possible flip here might be 175 with Pete Snyder vs Dom Federici. Snyder beat him in this dual, part of that team win. He’ll have to repeat that performance, against a Federici that looks as good as ever, to keep the pressure on the Blue Knights.

The last two matches should go pin, forfeit or pin, pin. Where each team picks up 6 points.

So, as we stand heading into the event, I have Sem with an 8-6 match advantage and a 13 point victory. There’s a few ways the tables can turn here. Let’s say Dekraker, Rozynski, and Ognissanti increase their wins? That might get them to 30 right there. Then it’s just flipping one result, maybe 106, maybe 175. Maybe they flip both of those and now it becomes a whole different ball game. 

In any case, without a doubt, this single dual remains the biggest and best showcase of elite HS wrestling talent and this year is one of the best versions of it. Whatever happens, it should be a great one and we should all be tuning in.