Delbarton at Sem Preview

1st Dual Results:

Line Ups Closest To Season To Date:

Can you believe you get all this for free? Last night Blair Academy traveled west to rival Wyoming Seminary and the only thing better than my preview for it was the actual wrestling. And I expect the same thing to be true today as the Blue Knights host back to back national top 10 teams with New Jersey’s Delbarton coming into town. I seem to always mention this sort of thing whenever Blair or Sem or even Delbarton are in the mix for a big event. For the people who criticize “non-boundary” schools, and recruiting, look at this competition, look at the travel opportunities, look at the number of kids from all these schools heading to the Ivy League, why would you NOT want to send your kid to one of them if you had the chance? My high school had a pipeline to CSUN, these schools have pipelines to Cornell, Columbia, and Penn. Like what are we talking about. But this isn’t a prep and private school advertisement so I’ll get back to the wrestling. Which, as I mentioned, these schools tend to have schedules full of the toughest competition. And tonight’s dual is just one more in the middle of that. And I have the best preview for it yet again. And it’s freeeeeeeeeeee. Yet again.

 

So unlike Blair, Delbarton doesn’t compete directly against Wyoming Seminary under the same jurisdiction, and duals against them aren’t annual events. But this year, we get to see it twice. They were both in Oklahoma for the Hall of Fame Duals and ended up wrestling in the semifinals on day 2, after pool action on day 1. Obviously, that gives us a little insight into this match up, but we also saw the Sem line up last night against Blair and I’ll try to combine both of those pieces of information into a comprehensive final “projected” line up. Emphasis on projected because we never know until the name is called out who actually takes the mat. But we do what we can with what we got.

 

Starting with that first meeting in December, we have to mention that neither team used their full line ups. And again, they might not here either. But I’m proceeding with the maximum strength possible for each. In which case, Delbarton was without Jayden James and Sem was without Sealey and Bouzakis. And the final score with some shuffling all around was Sem 39 Delbarton 21. I think even keeping things relatively the same, Delbarton closes the gap a little. However, it’s more than likely not enough. Like an underdog football team kicking an onside kick or a fake punt turning momentum in their favor, there probably has to be a little shuffling of the Green Wave line up yet again. And I think I found a possible “path to victory” for them.

 

Keeping weights relatively “standard” to what Delbarton has looked like at major tournaments, we should expect 4 ranked matches and even more individually ranked wrestlers. We already saw Dan Jones against Desmond and Cerchio against Federici. Both of those went to Sem the first round. Cerchio was able to get a win over Federici in the most recent battle between them, but Jones hasn’t had that chance yet. Could he flip the result as well? Sure. But as we sit here typing this, I’d say it’s a long shot. The other two ranked matches we’ll be seeing for the first time, with Sealey and James expected to compete. I have them splitting those, but they’ll be tough as well. Sealey just battled with Pete Snyder last night up at 175. Maybe Parentin sees an opening. Botello just lost a close one to Dekraker. James has a win over him at Beast. The point is, they could go any which way.

 

However, with Sem favored in 8 of the 6, and favored in 5 of the 8 to get bonus points, there’s little opportunity – barring huge surprises (which are always possible) – to shock the wrestling world with the team win. There is however a possible reshuffling that I think does give the Green Wave a little sliver of hope. A glimmer. And sometimes that’s all you need.

Best Case For Delbarton:

With Shamus Regan out at 106, it takes a way a top 5 match up there. But what it does is open the door for PJ Terranova. Now, this is predicated on his ability to make 106 (he’s been wrestling at 113 all season, but maybe he weighs 108, I don’t know). But if he can weigh in at 106, he would be favored over Aftewicz. Then you have #3 in the country Cam Sontz at 113 to battle Motyka. Motyka teched Terranova in Oklahoma. This would be a true toss up. In the first go round, Sem was a net +2 on the team score between 106 and 113. This adjustment could give them a net +6. But that requires winning both. So, do you forego the most certain outcome, Sontz against Aftewicz, in the hopes of chasing more points? Maybe. Why not. Swing for the fences. Now you’re up 6-0 rather than down 5-3. 

 

Now for the even crazier idea. If Sem is inserting Corbin at 126 again, and moving everyone from Lilledahl to 150 up a weight, then you know 132 is going to Sem regardless. That’s the single best wrestler on either team. But after James at 138, the next most potent Green Wave in this range is Chase Quenalt. Send him up to 144 and go for the flip against Trujillo. Trujillo beat Trevor Jones in OT last time. Quenalt could flip this for a net 6 in favor of the Green Wave. 

 

Just those two moves, Terranova/Sontz flip and Quenalt to 144, could spark a +12 advantage for Delbarton. Now, we’re talking. Now the gap is closing. If Cerchio can repeat the win over Federici, that’s another 6 point swing from dual #1, and a 19 point differential is down to 1. Gabe Logan beat Smokey McClure last time, I think he gets the win over Evanitsky here. Evanitsky won over Betz and I would say Bouzakis does as well. If the rest all hold serve, we’ve got ourselves 8 Delbarton wins to 6 Sem. And now we’re in that collective “what is happening here?” phase.

 

Of course, no matter what the strategy is, you have to win the matches. And I’m also sure there are other maneuvers to be made by either side that will impact the final outcome. I can recall last year in a dual against Blair, Delbarton pushed them to the very brink in what was expected to be a runaway for the Buccaneers. And I have to believe they are ready for today just the same.

Best Case For Sem:

But what about a best case for Wyoming Seminary? Well, first of all, in any sport, a favorite of this magnitude very rarely feels a need to adjust anything they do. It’s more like, we line up, you try to stop us. But there are options available to them that could mitigate the Green Wave advantages I just discussed. 

 

The thing that makes the Blue Knights so difficult to beat this season is the quality they can run out at weights where almost every other opponent is going to see a dip. Most teams that are strong in the lower weights drop off a bit as things get heavier, or vice versa. But for them, they have a world champion anchoring their first 5 and their last 5. They have a PIAA state champion in their first 3 and a Super 32 champion in their final 3. There is no let up. 

 

So what if they had Evanitsky at 157 where he’s been all season and picked up a win in this match up with Betz already and then moved Bouzakis to 165, Sealey to 175, Federici to 190, Dailey to 215 and Correa to 285. Now all of a sudden, they not only erase the forfeit but they become the favorite at 285, that’s a +9 at a minimum flip. Dailey against Lee is more of a toss up than Correa, but that could definitely go his way. Sealey could beat Cerchio, Bouzakis could get the better of Parentin, and if Evanitsky repeated the win over Betz, that’s a Blue Knight sweep from 157 to 285. Shutting the door on any thoughts of an upset. 

 

But the thing is, as I was mentioning before, they don’t even have to do any of that and could STILL sweep almost all those weights. That’s how deep this team runs. 

 

Anyway, props to both programs, their coaches, wrestlers, support systems. They put it on the line and that should be applauded by fans everywhere. It’s fun for me to put my strategist hat on and envision how to best aim the available stones at a Goliath like Sem. Because let’s be real, they are the sport’s current Goliath. And now we get to see if Delbarton can go from the Green Wave to the Green Dave, at least for one Saturday afternoon.

 

And finally, I really hope regardless of any shifting line ups and weight movement that we get to see Alessio vs Sealey. We didn’t in Oklahoma, but these two are not just two of the best, but two of the most entertaining to watch. It has the makings to be among the best individual matches of the season to be honest. 

Competition Is Paying The Price

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Meet Todd Wightman

Based in Western PA. Right in the heart of WPIAL country, Todd brings an insider’s view from the country’s epicenter  of wrestling. He’s excited to build on the TKDWN tradition of starting with the story first. The athletes, the coaches, their families and supporters, there is no shortage of stories to tell. And Todd will bring his unique perspective to help us continue to deliver top notch content for the world’s greatest sport!