Well, well, well, what do we have here… The two best teams, certainly dual teams, in the very fine state of Pennsylvania. It’s only right they would meet in the finals. Diving deep into this sport on a national level you come to discover a few truths:

1. Pennsylvania is the best state for individual talent. You can just count up the ranked wrestlers. And then look at NCAA all-americans, champions, etc.
2. Pennsylvania doesn’t usually have nationally strong teams when compared to some other states.

#1 seems universally accepted. #2 is a little lesser known. But it’s true. I have 49 Pennsylvania wrestlers ranked nationally. They compete on 32 different teams. Compare that ratio to say, California. I have 36 wrestlers ranked from the Golden State. They compete on 16 different teams. The point being, the distribution of talent in PA seems to be wider, more dispersed, where other states seem to have talent more concentrated to a few power programs. But that has changed.

This year, PA has two teams that can compete with almost every top school in the country. Two teams that do have a collection of ranked talent that should break the state team record for points in Hershey next month and two teams that should give us a classic dual tomorrow.

I don’t know how significant dual championships are for the teams involved, but I would think each side will want to win this one pretty badly. Does that mean we get some good dual strategy to match some good dual wrestling? We can only hope.

(As an aside, that’s maybe the 3rd thing you come to realize, there is a lot left on the table – a lot to be desired – with a lot of dual strategy.)

As far as I can tell, McCort will be without a wrestler at the lower weights. Which lower weight that ends up being, I’m not sure. But what I would recommend is that they line up the forfeit with Joey Bachmann. Bachmann would be favored to win, probably by fall, so that’s 6 points for FCA regardless. Better to give them up in a forfeit and then see if Britt can win what amounts to a toss up. If he can, that’s a net 3 for FCA between 107 and 114. If the forfeit goes to Waltenbaugh, and then Bachmann gets the fall, that’s a net 12 for FCA. Those 9 points – in a dual this tough – would turn the outcome.

So there’s every possibility McCort wins this dual, but not if they give up 12 points in the first two weights. They’ll need to win the toss and then choose odd or even matches based on where they begin – thus forcing FCA to declare first at 107.

Moving on to the rest of the weights, there shouldn’t be any more forfeits, but there will be what feels like two duals. Especially if they start at 127 or 171. 

I have both schools favored to win 6 matches. And they happen to be 6 in a row for each side. So if the outcomes live up to the prediction, both teams will go on runs that might feel neverending.

Now, where things get interesting is that FCA is probably the biggest favorite in 3, they should get 17 or 18 points there. These three are well known. Jax, Mason, Bo. But the other 3 are all likely to be decisions with Miller, the Super 32 champ, having the strongest odds. The other 2, Herring and Magro, are essentially coin flips. I have Herring and Magro either ranked, or they have spent more time ranked this season than their projected opponent, and get the edge from me. However, these could go either way – but McCort needs them. And if they get them, Magro will cap off a 6 match win streak and the Crushers will have a lead opened up. 

And then FCA gets to work. From Adam Waters to Mark Effendian, the Lions will be looking to chip away at the McCort lead. And, if I have this right, they will need a pin by their top 20 heavyweight to pull out the win by a point. And frankly I couldn’t imagine the feeling there. 12 matches down. Your team trails by 5. Anything less than a tech fall, your team loses. A pin and you win. #1 vs #2. For the team state title. All on the line. I think he does it.

As always, you can look at the match table and see exactly how I’m thinking this one plays out. Regardless, I think we’re in for one of the best duals of the season around the country. One that should have some great moments and plenty of drama.

As for the individual matches, all eyes should be on 145 to 160.