This week, we get the NJSIAA team championships, with all eyes on the state Non-Public School A group. Where one semifinal match up, between Delbarton and Christian Brothers Academy will of particular note for us nationally.

According to Mat Scouts, who currently leads the way regarding national team rankings, this will be the #9 team in the country (Delbarton) vs the #35 team in the country (CBA). Then looking at Full Circle who does New Jersey rankings, it’s #2 in the state against #4. So we know right off the bat, each team must have quality throughout the line up, and that is indeed true. What we also know is that within the Garden State, there are the top 2, St Joe’s Regional and Delbarton, and then everyone else. That’s just the reality. Just to sort buttress the point, they both wrestled St Peter’s Prep (#3 in the state) on the same day. While they beat CBA 42-24, they lost to Delbarton 66-0. Of course, the line up for SPP was not quite the same in both, there is no line up I know of that would have made up the 84 point differential between those scores. What this really means for me is that instead of the Blair and Sem duals for Delbarton, where I looked for paths for a Delbarton upset, now they play the villainous favorite role – and I will look for any possible path to a CBA win. 

I’ll start this as I normally do, looking at the possible match ups. First, we should get a very good one at 106. Elite level. That will be the best. A national top 10 showdown that should actually be the NJ state finals in March (unless they seed that bracket in some crazy way). I’d have to favor Sontz coming in, simply due to common opponent results. Sontz has had the tougher season schedule, so he comes in with more losses. But both have lost to Dom Deputy and Shamus Regan. The difference is that Sontz has since defeated Regan twice. Perhaps Coluccio would have avenged that defeat himself given the opportunity. Sontz has also picked up a slew of top wins over Anello, Schwab, Seacrist, Diaz, and Mason. Coluccio has likewise defeated Diaz and Mason. So, as I say, to me the data supports Sontz as the favorite but this should be as close as it gets. 

113 doesn’t quite match 106 on paper, but as we saw in the Blair dual, Terranova can provide problems for higher ranked foes and it won’t be a cake walk for Kenny. But there’s little to suggest the upset is in the cards. For CBA to have a shot at this dual, they not only need a Kenny win, but I’d say it has to be by pin (how you like that word choice to make it rhyme?). Kenny entered the season as the top NJ wrestler at 113 and has done nothing to fall short of that status. His only losses on the season are to Ayden Smith. Unfortunately for the rest of NJ, Smith is in Pennsylvania. 

As we sit after the first two weights, I have it 1-1 on the match count, and advantage CBA on the scoreboard due to likely bonus at 113. If they have someone at 106 (maybe Kellen Duffy?) who could give Sontz a run, perhaps CBA bumps these two up and gets the win at 113 with Coluccio and then sees what Kenny can do against Dan Jones at 120, where otherwise Delbarton is a solid favorite once again. The downside here is that they could lose 106 by bonus, 113 with Terranova kinda shocking Coluccio, and then the bigger Jones handling Kenny. So there’s risk here but when you come in heavily disadvantaged sometimes you have to take some bigger risks. Who knows, just a thought.

As for the current likely match at 120, it is a top 5 battle within the state. However, NJ at 120 is really all about Anthony Knox and the likelihood of Jones reaching the state finals to give him a rematch from last year. Jones on the season has 2 losses, both to Nate Desmond. So where Knox has separated from the rest of the pack, Jones I believe should be given that same credit compared to those behind him. Duffy is definitely solid and should be in the mix to medal at Atlantic City at the end of the season. Much crazier things have happened on a wrestling mat than him beating Jones. He’s already demonstrated an ability to compete with national level guys, losing 4-0 to Gauge Botero and 5-3 to Lukas Littleton Mascaro. A win here isn’t something I can predict, but again, will be needed by CBA to have a shot going into the upperweights.

126 is the first real heavy favorite for either side. Delbarton’s freshman DeGeorge has been having himself a nice inaugural season, positioned to be a state finalist for the Green Wave. Jenks will be tasked with keeping this to a decision with DeGeorge on a nice 6 match tech/fall streak. 

132 is a nice New Jersey match up. One that favors Delbarton and Quenalt, but not by much at all. In fact, I’d say this is the biggest toss up of the weights we’ve looked at so far. Within the state, Sakoutis’s best win, and most noteworthy performance, was in the Southern dual against Scottie Sari. Sari was the slight favorite in that one. Sakoutis may have locked up the dual win with that one. Quenalt is a little better, or at least has a little better resume than Sari, but there’s no reason to consider this more than a real opportunity for CBA to pull the 6 point swing.

138 could be sneaky good for those outside the state. Now this isn’t a regular season dual so I don’t even know if it’s being broadcast for anyone outside the state, but should you be reading this from around the country and have the chance to tune in, you might be surprised here with a top 5 national wrestler in James taking on AJ Falcone. I get this is a running theme so far (possible competitive match, Delbarton still the favorite), but James should be the expected winner, he’s done plenty in his early career – both last year and this one – to warrant that. He’s in my top 5 for goodness sake. But Falcone has been competitive in some big matches and will need to put it all together to really challenge James. For now, I’m calling for a nice, controlled James win, let’s say 9-3.

144 is the second really solid CBA favorite. Nini isn’t just #1 in the state, he’s in the top 10 in the country. Jones is a very solid contender for a state medal, however, Nini is something different. The problem for CBA is that they almost definitely need the pin here but Jones is definitely tough enough to prevent that. A Jones outright win would be fairly shocking, but I’ve been shocked many times… and not just when resisting arrest, but in this sport.

The 2nd half of the dual is where things may start to get away from the Colts. As I see it, they have one weight where they should be considered the favorite: 157, and then a few where they likely surrender bonus. The issue for Delbarton against the Sems and Blairs of the world this season is that where they have state level guys, those two have national level guys. But when we bring it to NJ competition, this is where we see them run away from the pack. They have two highly regarded Cornell commits in Perentin and Cerchio. They are both possible wins by fall. Then you have Vinnie Lee at 215 who might have been the underdog against a Jude Correa but is a heavy favorite against state unranked Parker Hughes. Heavyweight is very similar. 

Just to illustrate the daunting task before CBA, if they win the first 9 weights (which is almost impossible to imagine, but let’s say they do). They win every match up to 157. They will be sitting at about 30 points, probably less considering the un-likelihood of pins in those matches. Delbarton could still close out the dual going pin, pin, pin, pin, pin. That’s on the table. 

I always hate to say such and such team has no chance. I definitely look for ways duals that appear to be lopsided on paper can be more competitive. But I also don’t like to lie to the people. Delbarton is a Garden State juggernaut. They’ve performed like it through the season and I see no reason to think they won’t continue the run.

I did run a hypothetical where CBA basically moves everyone up a weight and it could give them some more favorable match ups, preventing bonus, making some a little closer. But it still didn’t result in a win for them. 

In the end, I’ll still be watching. I was watching when CBA beat Southern and that was a fantastic atmosphere. One that had me thinking I should relocate to New Jersey. I was watching when Phillipsburg beat Easton. That came down to criteria. And I’ll be tuned into this one. Because in the end, there’s always memorable moments in duals like these, and I expect to see some more tonight. And while I’ve gotten to know Delbarton families maybe more than any other team in the country, and I do pull for them often, I may even be kind of hoping for a few of these upsets. Let’s see how exciting this can get.