Last year, the Delbarton Green Wave came into this very same dual as the top team in New Jersey against the #2 St Joe’s Green Knights. There’s a lot of green going on here, and there’s a lot more green around the rest of the Garden State wrestling community, green with envy that is. I get it, they recruit, they select the best kids, yada yada enchilada or however that goes. I just care about quality competition and that’s what we get here.

Not only do these schools come into the finals as the top two in the state, they’re both in the top 10 in the country. St Joe’s #8, Delbarton #9. Each team has a handful of nationally ranked kids. According to the best ranking service in the country (that’s me by the way), Delbarton has 4 and St Joe’s has 3. And although they don’t all line up to meet each other, we will get at least one phenomenal match up here, at 175.

A returning state champion (Cerchio) and the 3rd place wrestler from the same bracket (Burton). Already with one head to head win this season, Burton has displayed some big jumps from last year. To the point that he’s the #1 in the state, #3 in the country, and favorite to win this main event. Cerchio of course is himself in the top 10 nationally and could flip that result. In fact, he’s already done that against another ranked foe, Dom Federici. Losing at Hall of Fame duals to the Blue Knight, he would come back and win at Powerade a week later. Perhaps he does the same here. It would go a long way to shifting the tide in this dual as SJR is definitely counting on this one in their favor.

Setting aside the thriller at 175, this dual has all the makings of an instant classic. I have SJR favored in 8 matches but with Delbarton likely to pick up more total bonus. This means it’ll come down to the wire, maybe they start at 190 so they can end with the classic 175.

Before getting into this year’s version, we have to remember that SJR did get the win last year. They were aided by two massive results, both upsets, both very different in nature but both combining for 9 points but also equalling a 16 point swing. Chase Quenalt was beating James Sloan 10-0 when Sloan caught him and got the win by fall. What looked like a Delbarton major turned into an SJR pin. That’s a 10 point swing. Then the biggest upset was when Mateo Sgambellone pulled out the 3-1 win in Sudden Victory over returning state champ Tyler Vazquez (who would go on to win another later last season) and for this one moment, it was everything SJR needed to get that state crown.

This year, no matter who you think is favored coming in, it’s even closer on paper than last year. And that’s why I say we are in for perhaps the best dual of the season. Especially considering the stakes, the full line ups, and talent throughout.

So 106 should give us two very likely NJ state medalists. Sontz has been having a great freshman season where he climbed up into the national top 3. Esposito has some solid wins, both in state and out, but nothing on par with Sontz. His best performance was a 1-0 loss to Shamus Regan. That’s the best opponent on his schedule and shows he could definitely keep this competitive. I think it’s Sontz by decision coming off the loss to Killian Coluccio.

113 is definitely a favorite for the Green Knights. McGinty has spent time a little higher in my national hierarchy. I believe he even started the preseason in the top 25 but he’s fallen a little bit, just outside of it. By season’s end who knows. He finished 5th in the state last season and definitely is expected to win this one. To date, Terranova’s best performance was a 6-5 loss to Mike Batista in the Blair dual. Batista is in my top 20 and that was a solid performance for the freshman. I actually think Terranova would have a better chance against Esposito. Maybe Delbarton flips them. 

120 is a sizeable favorite for Delbarton. Jones is a likely finalist opposite Anthony Knox and as long as it isn’t Knox on the other side, in the state of New Jersey, I’m picking him to win. Bautista’s job as the match wears on will be to keep it to 3 points for the Green Wave. Whereas Jones has to be approaching this with the fall, or at least major, in mind.

126 will be a tough, hard fought battle in my opinion but I just like what I’ve been seeing out of the freshman DeGeorge. He’s actually right on he cusp of the top 25, but the loss to Sammy Spaulding keeps him just out. They haven’t wrestled yet, but do have 2 common opponents in Sammy Spaulding and Ryan Meier. Both lost to Spaulding and beat Meier. DeGeorge got a 13-2 major and Paino won 3-0. This seems to favor DeGeorge but it could go the other way.

132 is sort of the mirror opposite of 120. It’s DeJesus in the top 5 taking on a quality opponent outside the top 25 who could be a live dog to pull the upset. But we have to give the edge to DeJesus on paper heading in. Quenalt winning this one would carry almost exactly the same magnitude as Sgambellone over Vazquez last year and would just all but ensure the Green Wave the dual win.

138 is a nice New Jersey match up of likely medalists in Atlantic City. The problem for SJR is that I believe James has separated himself fairly comfortably from the rest of the state and bonus points are on the table for the sophomore.

144 isn’t a rematch of last year’s Sloan pin, with that coming against Quenalt. But it is a similar caliber match up overall. This means that it could be a Trevor Jones commanding lead, or maybe not quite 10-0 but still in the lead. Does he also succumb to the Sloan magic? Possibly. Maybe Sloan up at 144 gets himself the lead and it’s Jones who has to battle back. I can’t really, confidently, predict much else but a Delbarton decision – but this should be fairly good for 6 minutes.

150 is a classic, solid favorite who should pull out a close win. When it’s over you might ask yourself if this was the best match so far. You’ll also likely be saying it was a great win for Ballante. Ballante has earned the higher ranking in the state, and nationally, by picking up some very quality wins and going toe to toe with other big names from around the country. Logan hasn’t built the same resume but he’s a live dog here. Going Ballante, should be a close decision.

157 continues what should be an upperweight group of 7 that goes mostly SJR’s way. In fact, I have this split where Delbarton wins 5 of the first 7 and SJR wins 5 of the back 7. The good thing for SJR is that winning the upperweights is much more likely to come with bonus, and of the 6 point variety. But I don’t think we get that here. DiBella is definitely expected to win. He could venture into major territory. It’ll be Betz #1 job to make sure that doesn’t happen. Close match late, maybe he flips the weight and does his version of Sgambellone.

When Perentin is a big favorite in these duals, you can expect a pin. I think we see that again.

Like I said before, 175 is the match of the dual. A rematch of a 6-3 win for Burton in the Powerade semifinals, he’ll be looking to make it two in a row against his biggest competition for the state title this season. Cerchio will be trying to make the proper adjustments and turn the tide in his favor. Of all the matches I have predicted, this might be the one Delbarton has the best chance to turn. But it’s still a daunting task, Burton looks phenomenal this season.

At 190 and 215, some strategy could come into play here for both teams – maybe. It all depends on what the kids actually weigh in as. But right now we’re going with the line ups they used in the semifinals. And if that is what ends up happening, it favors SJR. Now, each match would be relatively even and could go Delbarton’s way but SJR would come in with the kid expected to win in my opinion. Better for Delbarton then to be able to match up Vinnie Lee away from Kaleb Jackson. This way a net 6 for SJR becomes a net 3 or net 0. The other option is to just have Lee wrestle Jackson and maybe he gets the win. That would really be big for the Green Wave.

At heavyweight, I don’t know if you have the biggest favorite, I think that’s actually Perentin, but at this weight, any separation often leads to falls regardless. Being that I have SJR with a 4 point win and fall at 285, they could cut that deficit to 1 if Martin can prevent the pin. Then it’s just another bonus point somewhere to take it to criteria.

One thing that stands out as you start to get more and more familiar with dual math is that winning a weight at all is more impactful than winning a weight by a fall rather than a decision. Of course the 3 bonus points are valuable but if it’s a match you’re expected to win that’s +3. Winning any weight is +6 at a minimum in your favor. This means that if I’m close to right with SJR winning 27-23, Delbarton can chip away by adding more bonus but what they’d really love to do is flip a weight and make it 7-7. Because if they can just tie on the match count, I think they’re in line for more bonus and therefore the win.

With that in mind, which weights are the most likely to go their way?

113, 150, 175, and 190, and 215. These are all advantage Green Knights but not big. Which means, we need this to start at 190. First of all, we get two of these (190 and 215) back to back right out the gate. But then, basically no matter what happens, it’s set up for the 1 and 2 wrestlers in the state of New Jersey to go at it for the team title. It would be a score of 24-23 in favor of SJR. Winner gets the gold. What better set up is there?

Anyway, tomorrow afternoon as you’re getting ready to host or go to some Super Bowl party, be sure to tune into this one. It’ll be streaming on NJ.com and should be quite the appetizer on a sports filled Sunday.